Publications

E. White, Aaron Hill (2025). Severe weather forecasts from artificial intelligence weather prediction models. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, in review.

A. J. Clark, K. A. Hoogewind, Aaron Hill, E. D. Loken (2025). Extended range machine-learning severe weather guidance based on the operational GEFS. Weather and Forecasting, 40, 1325–1343.

E. E. Sudler, Aaron Hill, C. R. Homeyer (2025). Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction Model Performance for Hurricane Helene (2024). Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, in prep.

Alexandra C. Mazurek, Aaron Hill, Russ S. Schumacher, Hanna J. McDaniel (2025). Can Ingredients-Based Forecasting be Learned? Disentangling a Random Forest's Severe Weather Predictions. Weather and Forecasting, 40, 237–258.

Aaron Hill, Russ S. Schumacher, Mitchell R. Green (2024). Observation Definitions and their Implications in Machine Learning-based Predictions of Excessive Rainfall. Weather and Forecasting, 39, 1733-1750.

Aaron Hill, Russ S. Schumacher, Israel L. Jirak (2023). A New Paradigm for Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasts: Probabilistic Random Forest–Based Predictions. Weather and Forecasting, 38, 251-272.

Aaron Hill, C. C. Weiss, D. C. Dowell (2021). Influence of a portable near-surface observing network on experimental ensemble forecasts of deep convection hazards during VORTEX-SE. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 1141-1167.

Russ S. Schumacher, Aaron Hill, Mark Klein, Jim Nelson, Michael Erickson, Sarah M. Trojniak, Greg R. Herman (2021). From random forests to flood forecasts: A research to operations success story. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102, E1742–E1755.

Aaron Hill, Russ S. Schumacher (2021). Forecasting excessive rainfall with random forests and a deterministic convection-allowing model. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 1693-1711.

Aaron Hill, G. R. Herman, R. S. Schumacher (2020). Forecasting severe weather with random forests. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 2135-2161.

Aaron Hill, C. C. Weiss, B. C. Ancell (2020). Factors influencing ensemble sensitivity-based targeted observing prediction at convection-allowing resolutions. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 4487-4517.

Aaron Hill, C. C. Weiss, B. C. Ancell (2016). Ensemble sensitivity analysis for mesoscale forecasts of dryline convection initiation. Monthly Weather Review, 144, 4161-4182.

Aaron Hill, V. E. Toma, M. D. Zuluaga, P. J. Webster (2014). Multiscale analysis of three consecutive years of anomalous flooding in Pakistan. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1259-1276.